Key Takeaways:

• The delayed US jobs report showed a mixed picture: US nonfarm payrolls rose by 119K in September, while the previous month was revised down by 33K. With labour-force participation increasing, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level in four years.
• The latest FOMC Minutes revealed increased division between hawkish and dovish members of the US Federal Reserve. Following dovish comments by NY Fed President John Williams, market expectations for a 25bp rate cut in December
  jumped to over 70%, up from 45% the previous week.
• US private-sector activity remained solid, with the Composite PMI at 54.8. Manufacturing moderated to 51.9, while Services grew to 54.8.
• Japan announced a JPY 21.3 trillion (USD 135bn) stimulus package, its largest since the pandemic, raising expectations of stronger fiscal support and higher inflation. Preliminary Q3 real GDP came in at -1.8% QoQ annualised, marking the first contraction in six quarters.
• Nvidia reported stronger-than-expected revenues, driven by robust demand for its AI chips. The company issued an upbeat Q4 revenue forecast above consensus. Client concentration remains high, with four customers accounting for 60% of sales.
• The Eurozone economy showed resilience, with the October Composite PMI reaching a two-and-a-half-year high. Manufacturing remains fragile, while services continue to hold up. Negotiated wages moderated to 1.87% in Q3, down from above 2%.
• The Trump administration issued an ultimatum to Ukraine to agree to a peace deal by Thanksgiving.

Markets reaction:

• Despite positive corporate earnings (Nvidia, Walmart) and stronger-than-expected US data, risk aversion increased. Equity markets declined, with ongoing concerns around tech-sector valuations weighing on broader indices.
• Safe-haven flows pushed core government-bond yields lower. In contrast, Japan’s new fiscal package triggered a rise in long-term yields, with the 30-year JGB trading above its German equivalent.
• Investment-grade corporate-bond indices posted positive returns, while equity weakness put pressure on high-yield markets.
• Oil prices fell amid renewed peace-deal efforts, and gold edged lower as the US dollar strengthened. The Japanese yen reached a 10-month low against the USD following the fiscal-stimulus announcement.
• Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction, falling to around USD 83,000 from a peak above USD 126,000 on 6 October. The decline spread across the wider cryptocurrency market.